Watchmen VS Wolverine

[Ron Hightower]

I have a buddy that is gay for Wolverine (that's not Nick) and he not only thinks Wolverine'll do better at the box office, but it'll be a better movie too! I told him it might do better money wise, but it couldn't be a better movie (in my opinion). I don't even think he understands what Watchmen is?

 

Wolverine might do better in money because it's Wolverine. Being one of the most popular characters in comics today, he might have that edge. Obviously, we won't know the truth till the movies come out, but what does Hondos think?

[Reverend Jax]

Well, X-Men has done well at the box office:

 

X1: $157,299,717 in the US, $296,250,053 Worldwide

X2: $214,949,694 in the US, $407,557,613 Worldwide

X3: $234,362,462 in the US, $459,256,008 Worldwide

 

The franchise has done well Wolverine is the series' breakout star. Also, it's coming out in May, a good month to make money in if you can manage to rise to the top of the box office. Which Wolverine is poised to do.

 

By comparison Watchman is not part of a Franchise and has no star power. The best movie to compare it to is 300, as that was based on a graphic novel that was not part of the popular consciousness, had no real stars, is directed by Zack Synder and was released in early March.

 

300: $210,592,590 in the US, $456,068,181 Worldwide

 

At first, I thought Watchmen outgrossing Wolverine would have been completely ridiculous, but these numbers make it seem like it's within the realm of the possible. Unfortunately, I don't think Watchmen lends itself to looking as awesome in a commercial as 300 did.

 

Wolverine has no competition to speak of on its opening weekend. The following week the big release is Star Trek, then Angels & Demons (sequel to the Da Vinci Code), then Terminator Salvation and Night at the Museum 2. That sets it up to do pretty well in my opinion, but Watchmen has a pretty good few weeks too.

 

Right now, the mainstream buzz around Watchmen is nowhere near where 300's mainstream buzz was before that came out, but it's still got two weeks, so I hope they have a marketing strategy in place.

 

On a straight bet, Wolverine has the edge. I'd give Watchmen a 10-20% chance of edging out Wolverine.

 

As for quality, if the movie is as faithful as the trailers make it look, Watchmen could be epic, but its scope is wide and its ambition and ideas are great, and that can fall apart easily. It would likely be a movie whose ambitions exceeded its reach, and with a backstory so rich, there's the risk that it will seem like it's being glossed over to fast.

 

I'm more psyched for Watchmen, but Wolvie may surprise me.

[crimsonfire]

I voted Watchmen for both without really thinking. In retrospect I would say Wolverine will have a better opening weekend and more than likely a greater profit margin. There is an element of doubt however because the publicity for Watchmen has a more simmering, mysterious quality to it as opposed to Wolverines immediate familiarity. It seems hard to predict what will happen come their respective opening weekends. Will the punters be scared off by Watchmens percieved lack of accessibility or will the superbly crafted previews draw them in with promises of an epic?

 

This is all in the context of the mainstream audiences who have never picked up a comic book in their lives.

[Thelogan]

I think Watchman may do better than I would have said a few months ago. Where I work we got Watchman action figures in and I'm constantly surprised by the slack-jawed yokels going"Sweet, a Rorschach toy!" and then asking me where the new Steven Segal movie is (yeah...he's still working.), The general populace seems much more aware of it than I initially surmised. It never stops being a little surreal to me.

 

That said, I'm sure the same people will see Wolverine too (and prob'ly like it a lot more).

 

I'm saying Watchmen for both. Quality-wise I pick it without hesitation. I'm not sure if it'll make more money than Wolverine but I bet it gives it a run for it's money.

[The NZA]

Wolverine looks good, and its gonna bank.

 

Watchmen is an interpretation of one of Alan Moore's finest works. Usually, that doesnt go well.

[archangel]

I think a project like Watchmen can be too big at times, and considering it's source, it's not as popular as, say, Wolverine or Spider-Man. If the hype around this can grow after the movie's debute, then I think it'll do well.

 

As to if it's a better movie? I don't believe it will be, and that's soley based on previous experiences. Movies with multiple stars and with the focus on a team tend to not be as good or developed storyline-wise as a movie with a focal character.

[90sKid]

I can't possibly imagine how is it that Watchmen will appeal to average Joe if it really is that faithful to the comic book... I mean, there's so much talking, not so much fighting, no superpowers (except for you know, Mr American God), and, as much as I like Rorschach, I feel that people will end up saying he's just a Republican Batman.

 

Although I haven't finished the comic, I'm pretty sure I have a good idea of what Watchmen is like.

[C_U_SPACECOWBOY]

I'd love to see the Wolverine movie bank, but I've got a strange feeling it'll have a pretty weak box office showing. I'm guessing a 40 to 50 million opening weekend, with a considerable drop off in the following weeks. It's not breaking any records and will probablly finish in the low 100 million range.

[Reverend Jax]

I'd love to see the Wolverine movie bank, but I've got a strange feeling it'll have a pretty weak box office showing. I'm guessing a 40 to 50 million opening weekend, with a considerable drop off in the following weeks. It's not breaking any records and will probablly finish in the low 100 million range.

Wolverine is the first summer movie. Previous Marvel titles that have had a chance at being the first summer movie, it'll bank. I'm guessing $70M opening. And the movies the following two weeks aren't going to be big competition (I think Star Trek looks like it'll be fun, but won't cut into Wolvie too much). I think Wolvie will finish up over $200M.

[Silent Bob]

I think there's a high possibility that Wolvy could win either way. Watchmen is going to have a big opening, but whether it continues to make good bank in the weeks that follow will depend on word of mouth and how good the film actually is. The movie is obviously more ambitious, which also means it has much farther to fall. In comparison, the only thing Wolverine needs to do for people to consider it a win is to top X3 - not too hard to do, as most X fans will tell you. It faces tough competition and will likely only stay number 1 for its first week, but even as it slides down the charts, it will continue to make big money because it's the big money season for movies. It also should be noted that Watchmen is rated R and will likely get fewer screens, whereas Fox is pushing for Wolverine to be PG13.

 

Wolverine will be a big, big hit no matter what. Watchmen will only be a big hit if it turns out to be good.

 

Wolverine is the first summer movie. Previous Marvel titles that have had a chance at being the first summer movie, it'll bank. I'm guessing $70M opening. And the movies the following two weeks aren't going to be big competition (I think Star Trek looks like it'll be fun, but won't cut into Wolvie too much).

 

See, that I disagree with. Star Trek (especially in its new, ultra-hyped, incarnation), Terminator, Drag Me to Hell - these are all films that share a very similar fan base with Wolverine. You also can't deny the power of family films these days, and May sees the release of not only Night at the Museum 2 but also Pixar's Up. The only major film coming out in May that I don't think will be a match for Wolverine is Angels & Demons, and that's only because people still have a bad taste in their mouths from The Da Vinci Code. If that film starts getting buzz and good press (and it should because it's a vastly superior story), it could be a contender as well.